The Future Of Farming

A View On Global Agriculture

Apr 23, 2025

“The farmer has to be an optimist or he wouldn’t still be a farmer.”

- Will Rogers -

You ever sit down with a warm plate of pasta, maybe some roasted veggies on the side, and think, “Wow, this is delicious”—but not once ask where it all actually came from? Most of us don’t. We open the fridge, hit the grocery store, maybe order in, and the food just... appears. Magic, right? Not quite. Behind every bite, there’s a whole ecosystem at work—fields, crops, animals, weather, machines, and most importantly, the people and companies who keep it all moving.

Farming isn’t just the background of our food—it is the story. And once you start peeling back the layers, it’s hard not to get sucked into the scale and complexity of it all. That’s why, in one of our recent posts, we asked you to vote on which company you wanted to explore next. The verdict? Deere & Co. A name that might not sound flashy, but trust me—it's legendary in the world of farming. We're talking about the company that basically is tractors.

So, let’s zoom in before we zoom out.

John Deere - The Context

Before we dive headfirst into the wild world of agriculture, let’s hit the brakes and take a closer look at the beast we’re riding in on: John Deere. Zoom in before we zoom out, right? Deere & Co isn’t just big—it’s mega big (we’re talking a $123.5 billion market cap kind of big). This corporate giant has its fingers in a lot of pies, but agriculture is the biggest slice, raking in a hefty 61% of its total revenue. They’ve also got a Construction & Forestry arm doing its thing, pulling in a respectable (but by comparison, modest) 17%. Toss in another 12% from their financial services, and you’ve got a well-oiled, multi-pronged machine. We’ll get to those other segments in future episodes, but for now, let’s stick with the main attraction: agriculture. This is where John Deere flexes its muscles—tractors, harvesters, you name it, they dominate.

And that’s exactly what we’re diving into today. We’re taking a tour through the agri-verse—arguably one of the most critical sectors on the planet—to explore what’s brewing on the horizon (or at least, what I think is brewing). Important is that today we’ll focus on the U.S. market in particular (with some slight diversions), as Deere & Co generates 66% of revenues from the U.S. & Canada. From there, we’ll piece together what it all could mean for the green-and-yellow powerhouse that is Deere & Co.

Global Agriculture

Crop Farming

Crop Farming – the good ol’ business of growing things from the ground. In the U.S., that mostly means corn and soy. These two are the MVPs of American fields. In terms of scale, crop farming goes head-to-head with livestock farming. They’re about equal in size, kind of like two heavyweight boxers circling each other in the ring. Over the years, a few interesting trends have popped up in this crop farming segment.

Commodity Prices

Ah yes, commodity prices – the ultimate puppet masters of farm income. Since global demand for corn and soy is relatively steady (people gotta eat, animals gotta eat), prices swing based mostly on how much farmers can pump out. What influences supply? A bunch of stuff. But let’s be honest – I’m not going to pretend to have a crystal ball here, and I won’t start throwing darts at the “price factors” board either.

What I can say is that farmers tend to make buying decisions based on those prices. When soy prices shoot up? Tractor sales go through the roof. When prices drop? Farmers hit the brakes. Below, I’ve dropped a chart of soy prices. Compare that with tractor sales over the years, and the pattern jumps right out:

Soy Price (Future Contracts) - Source: Google Finance

Take 2013, for example: soy prices were booming, and guess what? Tractor sales hit 2.2 million units globally. Fast forward to 2015-2016—soy prices nosedived, and so did tractor sales, down to 1.9 million. Then came 2021: record-high soy prices, and boom, 2.5 million tractors sold. Coincidence? Not likely. In 2023, prices cooled a bit, and sales dropped back to 2.2 million.

There’s also the “tractor upgrade cycle” to consider. Much like how you don’t replace your car every year (unless you’re a millionaire with a short attention span), farmers don’t just casually swap tractors. But when revenue is good, and prices are looking juicy, the fleet gets a refresh. Everyone jumps on the upgrade bandwagon at once.

Result? Tractor buying frenzy.

Consolidation

Another thing: farms are merging, combining forces like the Avengers of agriculture. Back in 2018, the biggest 5% of farms were already producing over half of all crops in the U.S. That’s a lot of power in very few hands.

What does that mean for John Deere?

Two things, really:

Bigger farms mean deeper pockets. That translates to high-end equipment and bulk orders—music to Deere’s ears.
But... fewer, bigger customers also means more bargaining power on their end. As long as the consolidation doesn’t go full monopoly-mode, it’s good news. If it does? Then suddenly Deere’s sitting across the table from customers calling all the shots.

Climate & Weather

Weather’s been getting more dramatic than a soap opera lately. One minute it’s dry, the next it’s floods. This makes farming even more of a challenge—and when times get tough, equipment matters. Farmers need gear they can count on, not something that falls apart after one rough harvest. Enter Deere & Co, the reliable workhorse.

Policy

Policy might not be the flashiest factor, but it’s a heavy hitter. Take the Farm Bill, recently renewed through September 2025. It’s like a safety net for crop farmers, helping stabilize income and giving farmers the confidence to invest in new equipment.

But let’s not forget tariffs and the general fog of uncertainty that comes with them. Prices don’t like uncertainty, and neither do farmers. The long-term impact? Still a big question mark, so I won’t speculate.

Then there’s the green elephant in the room: sustainability. Climate-related regulations are increasingly shaping agri-policy, and not always in ways farmers love. We’ll dig deeper into this in a future segment, but for now just know—policy is a big player in this game, and it’s not always playing nice.

Livestock Farming

Food Prices

Food prices and crop prices have a weird relationship—kind of like siblings who don’t get along but still live in the same house. When crop prices go up, food prices tend to go down, and vice versa. This creates a countercyclical dynamic between crop and livestock farming: when it’s a tough year for crops, livestock usually gets a breather, and when livestock struggles, crop farmers might be popping champagne. But don’t expect this to perfectly balance out tractor demand. Livestock farming usually calls for smaller, more specialized tractors—mainly for things like manure management and feeding. So, while there’s some offset, the overall demand still follows a pretty clear cycle.

Policy

Policy, once again, is in the driver’s seat. On one side, you’ve got the growing wave of sustainability regulations that affect everything from emissions to land use. On the other, there’s increasing pressure around animal welfare. Farmers working with livestock now face a growing list of do’s and don’ts—more boxes to tick, more hoops to jump through. And while these policies aim to improve standards (a good thing!), they also require investments, changes in operations, and a general shift in how farms are run.

Technical Adoption

The silver lining? All of this is accelerating the adoption of new tech on the farm. A great example is automated feeding systems—less manual work, more efficiency, and fewer missed meals for the animals. These aren’t your grandpa’s farms anymore. While tech like this doesn’t directly boost tractor sales, it signals something bigger: farmers are leaning heavily into digital tools, precision equipment, and smarter farming overall. It's clear—agriculture is getting an upgrade, one algorithm at a time.

Precision Agriculture

Automation

Let’s talk automation—because yes, even the fields are going digital. In 2023, a solid 68% of large farms (we’re talking $1M+ in revenue) were using some form of precision agriculture. That’s not a fad, that’s a full-blown trend. The long-term goal? Cut down on manual labor—which, let’s face it, is expensive and getting harder to find—and replace it with machines that don’t call in sick or need lunch breaks. It's not about replacing people for the fun of it, it’s about making farms run smoother, faster, and cheaper.

Digitization

Data is becoming the secret sauce of modern farming. The more you know, the more you grow—literally. Analytics and farm management software are becoming just as important as the tractor itself. And guess who’s ahead of the curve? Yup, John Deere. Their tractors don’t just plow fields anymore—they’re connected to a whole software platform. It’s a clever play: sell the software first, then watch the hardware sales follow. It’s a bit like buying into the Apple ecosystem… but with more mud.

And just like in the auto world, the next frontier is autonomy. In 2022, John Deere pulled the curtain on its first fully autonomous tractor—no driver required. It’s basically the Tesla of tractors, minus the Elon tweets. Self-driving machines rolling through cornfields? That’s no longer sci-fi, it’s already in motion. The future isn’t just green—it’s smart, self-steering, and probably running code updates from the cloud.

Sustainable Agriculture

Organic Farming

Organic farming is having a moment—and it’s not just a farmers’ market trend anymore. Consumer demand for organically grown food keeps rising, and with it, the number of organic farms popping up across the countryside. But here’s the twist: no synthetic fertilizers or pesticides means these farms rely a lot more on mechanical methods. Think weed removal done the old-school way—by machine, not chemical. That shift means a rising demand for specialized equipment built for these more hands-on, eco-friendly tasks. So, while organic might sound all natural and low-tech, it’s actually fueling some very tech-savvy equipment sales.

Regenerative Agriculture

Then there’s regenerative agriculture—the buzzword that’s actually worth the buzz. These are farming techniques designed to boost soil health and long-term crop yields. One example is “no-tilling,” which skips the plow to keep soil ecosystems happy. Another is planting cover crops during off-seasons to maintain soil health. The catch? These practices often require more mechanical work, not less. That means tractors are working harder, longer, and more often—boosting their wear and tear. The result? Farmers have to replace or upgrade their machines more frequently. Regenerative for the soil, and unintentionally, regenerative for tractor sales too.

Electrification?

And finally, let’s talk electric. Could the hum of engines be replaced by the near-silent whirr of electric tractors? It’s already happening—on a small scale. These early electric models are still niche, but they align perfectly with the sustainability wave sweeping through agriculture. The demand isn’t massive yet, but the seeds have definitely been planted. As battery tech improves and climate policy tightens, electric tractors might just be the next big thing. Who knows? The future of farming might be as quiet as your neighbor’s Tesla pulling out of the driveway.

Final Remarks

All in all, the outlook for John Deere is pretty compelling. The shift toward automation, digitization, and sustainable farming practices is clearly playing in their favor. More tech on the farm means more demand for advanced machinery—and Deere’s not just keeping up, they’re leading the charge.

But let’s not sugarcoat it: there are still bumps in the road. Tractor sales remain tightly linked to commodity prices, especially in the crop segment. When soy and corn prices take a dive, so do equipment sales. That kind of dependence adds a layer of volatility Deere can’t fully escape, no matter how many autonomous tractors they roll out.

So while the long-term trends look green (and yellow), the short-term still runs on crop cycles, weather whims, and global policy shifts. In other words—business as usual in the world of agriculture.

📢 What do you think?
Are the trends enough to keep Deere & Co thriving, or is the dependence on crop prices too big of a risk? Drop your thoughts in the comments—I’d love to hear your take!